Ato Forson Extends Lead in NDC Flagbearer Race as Nketia and Iddrisu Trail in New Poll

A new nationwide survey has confirmed Dr Cassiel Ato Forson as the clear frontrunner in the contest to become the National Democratic Congress flagbearer for the 2028 presidential election, with his two closest rivals locked in a statistical dead heat behind him.

The poll, conducted by Global Info Analytics between 30 May and 12 June 2026, surveyed 8,784 registered voters across all 16 regions using a mix of face-to-face interviews and online responses. At a 99 per cent confidence level with a margin of error of just 1.5 percentage points, the findings offer one of the most robust snapshots yet of where the NDC internal succession race stands.

Dr Forson, who currently serves as the Minister of Finance, commands 32.5 per cent support among NDC-leaning voters. Johnson Asiedu Nketia, the party former General Secretary now serving as its national chairman, sits at 21.2 per cent, while Haruna Iddrisu, the former Minority Leader in Parliament, is virtually level at 21.1 per cent.

The regional breakdown reveals distinct patterns of support. Dr Forson draws his strength from the Akan-speaking regions and among swing voters, demographics that are critical to any party prospects in a general election. Mr Asiedu Nketia base lies in the Volta and Oti regions, the NDC traditional heartland, while Mr Iddrisu commands roughly 60 per cent support across the northern bloc, reflecting his deep roots in that part of the country.

When tested in head-to-head matchups, Dr Forson dominance becomes even more pronounced. He defeats Mr Asiedu Nketia by 62 per cent to 38 per cent and beats Mr Iddrisu by the same margin. The contest between Mr Asiedu Nketia and Mr Iddrisu, by contrast, is far tighter, with the former edging ahead at 51 per cent to 49 per cent, a difference well within the poll margin of error.

Perhaps the most telling numbers come from the survey testing of each potential candidate against Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party likely standard-bearer in 2028. Dr Forson leads Dr Bawumia by 54 per cent to 34 per cent among all voters, a 20-point cushion that would represent a commanding advantage in a general election. Among first-time voters, that lead stretches to 53 per cent versus 29 per cent. Mr Iddrisu holds a 51-to-36 per cent edge over Dr Bawumia, while Mr Asiedu Nketia leads 49 to 38 per cent.

The poll also tracked how support has shifted since March 2026. Professor Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang, the sitting Vice President, has seen her numbers decline by 5.5 percentage points to just 8.5 per cent, suggesting that her candidacy has failed to gain momentum. Mr Asiedu Nketia dropped 3.9 points, while Mr Iddrisu fell 1.9 points over the same period. Dr Forson, by contrast, appears to have absorbed much of that lost support.

The survey arrives at a delicate moment for the NDC. President John Dramani Mahama is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, making the selection of his successor one of the most consequential decisions the party will face in the coming years. While Dr Forson lead is substantial, the regional nature of his rivals support suggests the race is far from settled. Mr Iddrisu dominance in the north and Mr Asiedu Nketia grip on the Volta Region mean that any candidate who wins the nomination will need to build bridges across the party diverse coalition.

Internal party dynamics also remain fluid. The NDC grassroots delegates and the broader question of who commands loyalty at the constituency level will shape the contest in ways that opinion polls alone cannot fully capture. What this survey does establish, however, is that Dr Forson has emerged as the man to beat, a position that carries both opportunity and the weight of expectation.

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