When Japan’s farm minister declared that he never had to buy rice because his supporters give him ‘plenty’ of it as gifts, he likely didn’t foresee the outrage that would follow. This seemingly harmless comment led to Taku Eto’s resignation, highlighting the sensitive issue of rising rice prices in Japan. The recent price hikes are significantly impacting Japanese consumers, farmers, and the political landscape.

Japan is grappling with a cost-of-living crisis, and the price of rice, a dietary staple, has soared. Eto’s departure underscores the government’s struggle to manage the situation and maintain public trust. The resignation of the farm minister is a symptom of a larger problem: rising rice prices in Japan, fueled by government miscalculations, changing consumption patterns, and the struggles of local farmers. This article delves into the factors contributing to this crisis and its political ramifications.

When Japan’s farm minister declared that he never had to buy rice because his supporters give him ‘plenty’ of it as gifts, he hoped to draw laughs. Instead, he ignited a firestorm. Eto apologized, saying he had gone ‘too far’ with his comments on Sunday at a local fundraiser. But the damage was done. The seemingly innocuous remark came at a time of heightened sensitivity to economic issues, making it particularly offensive to many Japanese citizens.

Japan is facing its first cost-of-living crisis in decades, which is hitting a beloved staple: rice. This reality amplified the perceived insensitivity of the minister’s comments. He resigned after opposition parties threatened a no-confidence motion against him. His ousting deals a fresh blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government, which is already under pressure to address the economic anxieties of the population.

The price of rice has more than doubled in the last year, and imported varieties are few and far between. This dramatic increase has placed a significant strain on household budgets, particularly for families who rely on rice as a primary food source.

Demand for rice went up because of more tourists visiting Japan and a rise in people eating out after the pandemic. At the same time, actual production was even lower than the estimate, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance. Kunio Nishikawa explained the government’s miscalculation: ‘But, Prof Nishikawa says, they got it wrong in 2023 and 2024. They estimated the demand to be 6.8m tonnes, while the actual demand, he adds, was 7.05m tonnes.’

An agriculture ministry spokesperson added, ‘The quality of rice wasn’t great due to unusually high temperatures, which also resulted in lower rice production.’

Rice farmers have been unable to make enough money for many years. The rising rice prices in Japan, ironically, have not necessarily translated into increased profits for them. Many continue to struggle with high production costs and fluctuating market conditions. Kosuke Kasahara explained the situation: ‘It costs approximately 18,500 yen ($125.70; £94.60) to produce 60kg of rice but the cooperative in his area of Niigata on the west coast of Japan offered to buy it last year at 19,000 yen.’

Until three or four years ago, the government would even offer financial incentives to municipalities that agreed to reduce rice production. This policy, aimed at addressing previous surpluses, has now contributed to the current shortage. The ministry spokesperson confirms that the government has offered subsidies to those choosing to produce wheat or soybeans instead of rice. Meanwhile, younger farmers have been choosing to produce different types of rice that are used for sake, rice crackers or fed to livestock because demand for rice in Japan had been falling until last year.

But as the public grew angry with the surge, the government auctioned some of its emergency reserves of rice in March to try to bring prices down. The move was intended to stabilize the market, but its impact has been limited. Shinya Tabuchi stated, ‘The government has always told us that they would not release its emergency rice stocks to control the price, so we felt betrayed.’

The rise in rice prices in Japan is felt most acutely by ordinary people, especially families struggling to make ends meet. ‘I want her to eat well, so if prices keep going up, we may have to reduce the amount of rice my husband and I eat,’ said Memori Higuchi, highlighting the difficult choices consumers are facing. She added, ‘Politicians don’t go to supermarkets to do their grocery shopping, so they don’t understand.’

In Japan, though, the issue has become so serious that the country has begun importing rice from South Korea for the first time in a quarter of a century. This unprecedented step underscores the severity of the shortage. PM Ishiba has also hinted at expanding imports of US rice. Yet, this solution is not universally welcomed. Ms. Higuchi voiced a common sentiment: ‘We’ve been saying local production for local consumption for a long time.’

Many elderly farmers can afford to sell rice cheaply because they have pensions and assets, but the younger generation has to be able to make money. Instead of guaranteeing the income of all the farmers and distorting the market, the government should let unprofitable farmers fail. Kasahara opposes the solution. ‘Farming in rural areas like ours is about being part of a community. If we let those farmers fail, our areas will be in ruins.’

The rice prices in Japan surge has brought about a whirlwind of economic pressures, political maneuverings, and consumer concerns. The challenge now lies in finding a balance that ensures affordable access for consumers and profitability for farmers while navigating the complexities of the global market and domestic policies. With national elections on the horizon, the government’s approach to rice prices in Japan will be closely watched and carries significant political weight.