Research Reveals Voting Patterns Ahead of NPP Primaries

An independent study on the New Patriotic Party’s forthcoming presidential primaries, scheduled for January 31, 2026, offers a rare, methodically rigorous glimpse into the mindset of party delegates, emphasizing both the complexity of voter behavior and the importance of neutral data collection.

The study, conducted by Dr. Evans Duah, a chartered accountant, lecturer, and financial economist, tracked delegate preferences through a three-wave nationwide survey spanning August 2025 to January 9, 2026.

Speaking on JoyNews’ The Pulse Show on Monday, January 19, Dr. Duah emphasized that the credibility of the survey rested on careful attention to methodology. “We first tell the enumerators to be very neutral,” he said. “Most of the people who call respondents are volunteers, lecturers, MPhil students, PhD candidates, and recent graduates. Their role is to ask questions accurately without influencing responses.”

Enumerators asked delegates two core questions: who they voted for in the November 2023 primaries and who they plan to vote for in the January 31, 2026, primaries. While the original survey included a third question on respondents’ next-best alternative, Dr. Duah explained that data was excluded to focus exclusively on first-choice preferences.

The survey also accounted for delegates who were undecided or unwilling to disclose their voting intentions, categories that Dr. Duah highlighted as critical for accurate interpretation. “We have those who are still undecided and those who were not comfortable telling us who they want to vote for,” he noted.

While the survey results place Kennedy Agyapong firmly in the lead, Dr. Duah suggested the more significant takeaway lies in understanding shifts in delegate behavior over time, the role of undecided voters, and the factors influencing decision-making within the party.

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