Ghana's Economy to Stay Strong in 2026 Despite Q3 Slowdown

Ghana’s economic growth is projected to remain strong in 2026, driven largely by robust household demand, despite a slight dip in activity during the third quarter of 2025.

According to Fitch Solutions, the country’s economic outlook remains positive, buoyed by easing inflation, declining interest rates, and a more expansionary fiscal policy.

“We project economic momentum in Ghana to remain robust, with real GDP growth edging up from 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026,” the firm stated. Data from the Ghana Statistical Service indicates a slight slowdown in the third quarter of 2025, with growth falling to 5.5% year-on-year from 6.5% in the second quarter.

The slowdown was primarily attributed to weaker performance in the industrial sector, which saw growth decline from 2.3% in Q2 to 0.8% in Q3, due to contractions in mining and quarrying, and reduced construction activity.

However, the services sector also experienced moderated growth, slipping from 9.6% to 7.6% as the expansion in ICT cooled, although domestic trade and transport remained strong. Notably, the agricultural sector bucked the trend, accelerating from 7.1% in Q2 to 8.6% in Q3, supported by strong crop production and a thriving fishing industry.

Fitch Solutions highlighted fixed investment as a key driver of growth in 2026. The Bank of Ghana’s substantial interest rate cuts – totaling 1,000 basis points since mid-2025 – are expected to stimulate private-sector borrowing after a three-year period of weakness.

“Investment activity will also benefit from the anticipated implementation of the Public–Private Partnership Act and the Corporate Insolvency and Restructuring Act, which should strengthen the regulatory environment,” the report indicates.

Furthermore, the recapitalisation of the National Investment Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank is expected to improve access to finance for Small and Micro Enterprises, providing additional impetus to private-sector investment.

Public-sector capital expenditure is also poised for a significant rebound after a weak 2025. Ministry of Finance data reveals a 48.3% contraction in development spending during the first seven months of 2025. However, the 2026 budget allocates GH¢30.0 billion (US$2.6 billion) to the ‘Big Push’ Infrastructure Programme, a substantial increase from the revised GH¢13.8 billion budget in 2025.

This increased investment will focus on major projects like the Accra–Kumasi Expressway and the Eke Amanfrom–Adawso Bridge, providing a significant boost to construction and overall fixed capital formation. Fitch Solutions forecasts fixed investment to grow by 10.0% in 2026, contributing 1.5 percentage points to overall economic growth.

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