Cedi Predicted to Drop 8% Against US Dollar in 2026

The Ghana cedi is projected to weaken by 8.0% against the US dollar in 2026, according to a recent disclosure by Fitch Solutions.

Despite this anticipated depreciation, the UK-based firm notes that this figure remains below the cedi’s long-term average of 10.2% depreciation between 2010 and 2025. The assessment was made in the firm’s 2026 Outlook For Ghanaian Economy Remains Robust, Despite Quarter 3 2025 Slowdown report.

Fitch Solutions attributes the expected resilience to strong global gold prices and Ghana’s healthy international reserves, factors which will likely mitigate significant pressure on the exchange rate in the near term. “Elevated global gold prices and healthy international reserves will limit any undue pressure on the exchange rate in the coming quarters,” the report indicated.

Looking ahead, the firm forecasts that while inflation may experience a slight increase in the second half of 2026 due to some demand-side influences, it’s expected to remain at manageable levels compared to recent history. This, they believe, will prevent a substantial strain on household finances.

Furthermore, the government’s commitment to raise public sector wages by 9.0% as detailed in the 2026 Budget is expected to boost purchasing power. “The government’s commitment…will further bolster purchasing power,” Fitch Solutions stated.

This anticipated rise in purchasing power is expected to contribute to strong private consumption growth of 6.5% in 2026, adding 5.3 percentage points to the country’s overall real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

In recent weeks, the cedi has already shown some signs of weakness, slipping due to typical seasonal demand. Over the past fortnight, the local currency faced moderate depreciation against key trading currencies, largely driven by these seasonal factors and limited intervention from the Bank of Ghana in the foreign exchange market.

In the interbank market, the US dollar – Ghana cedi pair closed at a mid-rate of GH¢11.41, up from GH¢11.20. Against the Pound Sterling and the Euro, the cedi depreciated by 4.62% and 3.87% respectively, closing at GH¢15.26 and GH¢13.32.

On the retail market, the cedi experienced a 0.41% decline to GH¢12.05, shedding 0.94% and 1.08% of its value against the Pound and Euro, concluding at GH¢15.90 and GH¢13.95 respectively.

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